The UK property market has seen a small shift this September, with average asking prices nudging up for the first time since May. However, regional differences and looming uncertainty around the Autumn Budget mean the outlook remains mixed.
Key Takeaways from September’s House Price Index
- The average asking price of a home is now £370,257, up 0.4% this month (+£1,517).
- Prices are still 0.1% lower than this time last year, marking the first annual fall since January 2024.
- Southern regions, including London, are leading the yearly dip, while the North West has seen prices climb by 3.2%.
- Despite pressure on prices, sales agreed are 4% higher than last year, showing activity remains strong.
Property expert Colleen Babcock explains:
“We expect to see a slight uptick in new seller asking prices in September, with the traditional back-to-school season boosting activity heading into autumn. This year’s 0.4% rise is a little below the long-term average of 0.6% for this time of year.”
Regional Differences Shaping the Market
The housing market story continues to diverge across the UK:
- South West: prices are 1.3% lower than a year ago.
- North West: prices have risen by 3.2%.
- London & Southern England: more homes are coming to market, up 9% year-on-year compared with just 2% elsewhere.
This greater choice for buyers in the south means sellers must price competitively to attract attention. By contrast, in areas with tighter supply such as the Midlands, Wales, Scotland, and parts of the North, well-presented homes are still selling more quickly.
What the Experts Are Seeing Locally
Matt Giggs, founder of The Giggs Group in Cambridgeshire, notes:
“Sellers who reduced their price expectations over the summer are now creating more realistic conditions for sales, which is keeping things moving. Well-presented, competitively priced homes are still attracting strong interest.”
Matt Thompson from Chestertons comments on London:
“The dynamics of the capital’s property market have shifted, with some boroughs not experiencing the activity or price growth traditionally associated with a world city. This has created opportunities for buyers to access homes that were previously out of reach.”
Looking Ahead: The Autumn Budget
The Autumn Budget, expected in late November, could play a big role in shaping the housing market. Rumours of property tax reforms — such as changes to stamp duty thresholds — are already causing uncertainty, especially for higher-value homes.
If changes were to take place, London would be most affected, with nearly six in ten sales above £500,000. By contrast, only 8% of sales in the North East cross that threshold.
Some forecasts have already been revised down:
- Savills now expects just 1% growth in 2025 (previously 4%), though it sees stronger growth in 2026–2029.
- Knight Frank has cut its 2025 forecast from 3.5% to 1%.
Despite these trimmed estimates, both firms predict a rebound from 2026 onwards, supported by stronger wage growth, easing mortgage rates, and improved buyer confidence.
Final Thoughts
The September house price data shows a market in transition. Asking prices have inched upward, but regional contrasts and affordability pressures remain. Buyers currently have more negotiating power in the south, while sellers in other parts of the country continue to benefit from tighter supply.
With the Autumn Budget on the horizon, uncertainty around property taxes may hold back some higher-end buyers. For others, especially first-time buyers, slower price growth combined with gradual improvements in mortgage affordability could create new opportunities.
If you’re planning your next move, whether buying or selling, staying informed about local trends will be key to making confident decisions in the months ahead.
